96th Tour de France - The Favourites
Can anyone beat Contador? Will a new face win? Will Lance produce another miracle? All will be revealed.

The 2009 Tour de France is upon us already. The battle for the maillot jaune is going to be intense. We have riders who have won before and riders who havn’t. We’ve got the return of Tour great Lance Armstrong as well as the most consistent GT rider Alberto Contador who missed last year’s race. There is a host of young riders who are set to show themselves on the big stage and the more experienced riders who aim to achieve for the highest honour. Where do you start? Who do you choose? Well here are the favourites for the 2009 Tour de France.

Alberto Contador
Country: Spain
Team: Astana
Age: 26
Best Finishing Position: 1st (2007)

This young Spaniard is a champion already. He is the only current rider to have won all 3 Grand Tours. He secured his first Tour de France victory in 2007 in a stunning display of climbing power. Last year he won both the Giro d’Italia and Vuelta Espana.

Alberto’s form this year has been great. In early March he surprised everyone by storming home in the opening time trial in Paris-Nice. No one could match him in stage 6 from Saint-Paul-Trois-Chateaux to La Montagne de Lure where he blitzed the field on the mountaintop finish by 58 seconds taking the yellow jersey. However, the next day, he lost himself the lead due to not hydrating himself. That is a mistake he will learn from and never do again.

Alberto Contador under attack on stage 7.
photo © 2009 Fotoreporter Sirotti

Alberto won the overall classification in the Volto Algarve as well as the time trial in stage 4. When the tour of the Basque country came around, he again won the overall classification and took stages 3 and 6 along with him. Stage 6 was yet another time trial.

Early June in the Dauphine Libere, he was there for training to get himself prepared for the Tour. He finished third overall and looked strong in the climbs. Following that, he won the Spanish Time Trial Championships.

There is no doubt about it. If he is his strongest, he will be hard to beat. He did not show his cards in the Dauphine so expect him to come out firing. He has improved in leaps and bounds in his time trialing ability and considering the Tour this year does suit a time trialist, he is going to be very hard to beat. He has a strong team behind him in Andreas Kloden, Levi Leipheimer, Yaroslav Popovych and of course Lane Armstrong.

Speaking of Armstrong, he is also a chance to win his 8th Tour de France, albeit a small chance. There is no doubt Lance Armstrong is a Tour de France legend. He dominated the Tour from 1999 – 2005.

However, at 37 years of age, and considering he broke his collarbone in April and has limited racing since his comeback, he’s against the odds to produce a miracle. But miracles do happen! He’s shown it on a number of occasions.

Denis Menchov
Country: Russia
Team: Rabobank
Age: 31
Best Finishing Position: 4th (2008)

Rabobank have a two pronged attack. Denis Menchov and Robert Gesink are the two riders that will put in a good performance for this team.

Denis Menchov is arguably the most consistent grand tour rider in the peloton. Over the last 5 years, Menchov has been an excellent GT rider. He won the Vuelta in 2005 and 2007. In the Tour de France, he was 6th in 2006 and 4th in 2008. Most notably, the performance last year when he finished 4th, he also finished 5th in the Giro d’Italia. This year, Menchov won the Giro with an exceptional ride. His time trialing has improved and based on last year, he has proven he can put in solid performances in both the Giro and the Tour.

Denis Menchov time trial Dauphine Libere  Photo © 2009 Fotoreporter Sirotti

Rabobank have a well drilled squad for Menchov. There is no doubt in my mind that Denis can’t put in solid back to back performances. I personally believe he could very well podium. He will definitely make top 5. He can climb, he can time trial, he is ultra-consistent and has a strong team. Those four factors are what it takes to win the Tour. He has them. Menchov is solid and I think he comes in as a bit of a dark horse even after his excellent performance in the Giro. What he does have is hunger and motivation to follow up and win again at the tour. The last rider to successfully complete a Giro and Tour double was Marco Pantani back in 1998. Other riders who have achieved this feat are Eddy Merckx and Bernard Hinault.

Robert Gesink is having a rock solid year. He was 11th overall in Tirreno-Adriatico, 7th overall in the Tour of the Basque country and 4th overall in the Dauphine Libere where he came runner up on stage 7. He has shown he can perform in a grand tour with a 7th in last year’s Vuelta.

Look for both of these riders to produce something special!

Cadel Evans
Country: Australia
Team: Silence Lotto
Age: 32
Best Finishing Position: 2nd (2007 & 2008)

Cadel Evans has been close to winning the Tour in the last two years. He has claimed 2nd, twice. Last year he didn’t have what it took to win. Over the last few years, Cadel has been criticized by many that he doesn’t attack.

Cadel Evans time trial Dauphine Libere  Photo © 2009 Fotoreporter Sirotti

To win the Tour de France, you need to have the ability to do something outstanding, something amazing on a climb to break away from the field. Last year we saw it with Sastre. On the Alp d’Huez, he attacked at the base of the climb and it worked for him. That is what won Carlos the Tour. Cadel needs to do the same. He is a former world mountain bike champion so he can climb. But can he attack?

This year, Cadel has shown some attacking flair. He was 7th overall in the Tour of Romandie and he did attempt to attack there. In the tour of the Basque country where he finished fourth, he did some attacking. He attacked in La Fleche Wallonne but unfortunately for him, it was a bit too early. BUT, he did attack with determination in the Dauphine Libere.

Evans wanted to win the Dauphine. In the last two mountain stages, he did show he can attack. In stage 6 to Briancon, he did try and drop Valverde and Contador. Unfortunately for Cadel, even though both were on separate teams, Contador was working with Valverde to give Valverde the win. The next stage, I saw something I have never seen from Cadel before. Major attacks! The stage finished in Saint-Francois-Longchamp and Cadel attacked like a man possessed to try and regain the yellow jersey. Again, Valverde had Contador to help him and Cadel’s attacks never broke them.

If he does attack in the Tour de France, Contador may have a challenge on his hands.

Unfortunately for Evans and Australia, I can’t see him winning. Barring a crash, he will definitely podium.

Andy Schleck
Country: Luxemburg
Team: Saxo-Bank
Age: 24
Best Finishing Position: 12th (2008)

Andy Schleck is one of, if not the most young talented cyclist at the moment. He’s been ear-marked for a future Tour de France winner. Saxo Bank won the Tour last year with Sastre and Andy rode a superb race. Whilst he finished 12th, he looked solid at some points in the mountains. With more maturity, he is going to take this race on.

His form this year has been brilliant. He had a strong spring classics campaign winning Liege-Bastogne-Liege and coming second in La Fleche Wallone. He came second in the Tour of Luxemburg in stage 2. He rode well in the Tour of Switzerland and won the Luxemburg National Road Race Championship on the weekend.

Andy Schleck proudly hefts his trophy.  Photo © 2009 Fotoreporter Sirotti

Saxo Bank have a very strong squad here for Andy Schleck. They have his brother Frank, swiss ace Fabian Cancellara and German legend Jens Voigt, Chris Anker Sørensen and Gustav Erik Larsson among others.

Andy’s best result in a Grand Tour was second in the Giro in 2007. At that point, he did show why he was going to be the next big thing. He showed brilliant finesse in the climbs. He’ll be right up there in the Tour this year. He is still young but don’t be surprised if he rounds out the podium or comes top 5. He has the ability to do so. But is he mature yet?

Carlos Sastre
Country: Spain
Team: Cervelo Test Team
Age: 34
Best Finishing Position: 1st (2008)

The defending champion! Where do I start? Carlos is an amazing cyclist. He has finished top 10 in the Tour de France on 6 separate occasions. Outside of the Tour, he has come second twice in the Vuelta. Carlos is an ultra-consistent Grand Tour rider.

His form this year has been good. He was 4th overall in the Giro d’Italia whilst winning stages 16 and 19 with exceptional climbing displays. This was all without a solid team. Let’s make one fact here.

To win the Tour de France you need a brilliant team behind you. Carlos last year had that brilliant team with CSC-SaxoBank. They dominated the race and no one could match them. Teams tried and teams failed. Riders tried and they failed. He had the dominate team and he had the amazing form to win.

With what we have seen of him this year he might just have the form to win. He showed in the Giro he could be the one who can out climb Contador on a summit finish. But does he have the team? On paper, no.

Carlos will give a good defence to his crown, but I don’t think his best will be enough to win without support.

Kim Kirchen
Country: Luxemburg
Team: Columbia-HTC
Age: 30
Best Finishing Position: 7th (2007)

We move onto the most successful cycling team in 2009, Team Columbia. This team has amassed stage wins after stage wins. In the tour of Switzerland, they won all but 3 of the 9 stages. That’s phenomenal. Let’s take a look at their GC hopes. Kim Kirchen and Australia’s Michael Rogers.

Kim Kirchen took the cycling world by storm last year dominating the first week of the Tour. He held the yellow jersey for 4 stages as well as the green sprinters jersey for 6 stages. If I look at Kim’s form last year to this year, it reads a very interesting story.

Last year, Kim was riding outstandingly well. He dominated the Tour of Switzerland until he caved in on the decisive stage, the 25km time trial up the Col du Klausen. Before that he was successful in winning two stages in the Tour of the Basque country with his first Spring Classic victory, La Fleche Wallonne.

It is of my personal opinion that last year, that not only did he go all out in the opening week of the Tour de France, but he peaked too early.

Let’s have a look at Kim’s year in 2009.

He crashed in the Tour of California in February and broke his collarbone. He was out of competition until April. He slowly adapted his body to back to racing and rode reasonably well in the Tour de Suisse without setting the world on fire winning stage 7. He defended his National Time Trial jersey on the weekend. I believe Kim is ready to peak and if he is, watch out! He can match it with anyone and if he is indeed peaking, don’t rule out a podium finish. He has the capabilities of it.

Kim Kirchen winning stage 7 of Tour de Suisse  Photo © 2009 Fotoreporter Sirotti

His team-mate, Michael Rogers has struggled over the recent years due to injury and illness. In the 2007 Tour de France, Michael was a virtual leader until he crashed out. There is no doubt in my mind that if he didn’t crash, he would have held the yellow jersey for a while. He got back to racing towards the end of 2007. At the start of 2008, he was struck down with mononucleosis and came back in the Dauphine where he finished 11th. He didn’t ride the Tour and came 6th in the Olympic road race. From there, he started getting back to the Michael Rogers we know.

Mick’s form this year has been solid. He has ridden consistently well without a major result. He was 3rd overall in the Tour of California and 8th overall in the Tour of the Basque country. In the Giro d’Italia, he didn’t ride that well but he still finished 8th overall.

It’s not yet clear who Columbia are going to ride for. Kim Kirchen or Michael Rogers? But, they have Tony Martin and Maxime Monfort as other overall contenders. If we look at Tony Martin’s form, it’s parallel with Kirchen’s of 2008. Don’t be surprised if Tony Martin lights up the tour at some point. He’s definitely in the form!

Roman Kreuziger
Country: Czech Republic
Team: Liquigas
Age: 23
Best Finishing Position: 12th (2008)

Liquigas bring a very strong team. Roman Kreuziger, Franco Pellizotti and Vincenzo Nibali. I’m not going to deny that I have huge wraps on Kreuziger. He is going to be a future champion. With respect to Andy, I put him ahead of Andy Schleck in that category.

Kreuziger’s climbing is sensational. He is relaxed and he rides with real purpose. His form this year has been superb. He was 10th overall in the Tour of the Basque country. But his biggest result came in the Tour de Romandie.

It was stage 4, the riders for the GC had to make a move. Kreuziger made that move. He climbed well and rode away from the riders that went with him to take the stage win. In the process, he won the overall classification.

Roman was my tip for the Tour de Suisse. Unfortunately, the climbs weren’t too difficult for Fabian Cancellara, but, Roman did climb well. Roman showed his climbing talents by attacking on stage 7 to Vallorbe Juraparc. Unfortunately, Roman didn’t win that stage as Kim Kirchen stormed home in the closing kilometers to take the win. With that said, however, Roman did show his true intentions and finished third overall.

Roman Kreuziger attacking during the Tour de Suisse  Photo © 2009 Fotoreporter Sirotti

I’m not writing Roman out of a potential top 5 finish here. He has the ability to do so. Watch out for him. He will win a stage.

If Roman struggles, there is another young gun in Vincenzo Nibali who will take up the slack. Nibali is a rock solid climber. This year his form has been alright. He won the Giro dell’Appennino, was 6th overall in the Tour of California, 10th in Tirreno-Adriatico, 6th in the GP Miguel Indurain and 9th in the Tour of the Basque country.

Regarding his grand tour finishes, he was 20th in the Tour last year. He has also finished top 20 in the Giro twice, 2007 and 2008.

Nibali is going to be a vital ally to Roman. Franco Pellizotti will also be of major importance.

Linus Gerdemann
Country: Germany
Team: Milram
Age: 26
Best Finishing Position: 36th (2007)

This young rider from Germany is another up and coming star. Linus made his mark on the professional scene in the 2007 Tour de France. He finished 36th overall but in the process won Stage 7 to Le Grand Bornand. In that stage, he made his move from a breakaway on the last climb of the day, the Col de la Colombiere. It was a Category one 16km climb with 6.8% gradient. He made a solo attempt 2km into the climb and wasn’t caught. He grabbed the yellow jersey and whilst he only held it for one day, he sent the message out that he means business.

In 2008, Linus missed the Tour de France after crashing in the time trial in Tirreno-Adriatico. He broke his leg and was forced to miss most the season. When Linus returned, he won the Tour of Germany in dominating fashion.

This year, his form has been good. He rode a solid Tour de Suisse finishing 41st. He was also 7th overall in Tirreno-Adriatico.

Whilst Linus hasn’t got a win next to his name this year, he does however, return to the scene of his first major win in the 2009 Tour. Stage 17 runs from Bourg-en-Bresse to Le Grand Bornand. Could this be the stage where Linus repeats and gets his first win of 2007? If he is out of calculation for the GC, he might try an ambitious breakaway.

Linus might be able to sneak into the top 10 but whatever does happen, he should be able to sneak a stage win.

Christian Vande Velde
Country: USA
Team: Garmin - Slipstream
Age: 33
Best Finishing Position: 5th (2008)

Last year, Christian showed his grand tour capabilities with a 4th overall in the Tour de France. He rode brilliantly well. This year, he was expecting to go even better with good team support. However, during the Giro d’Italia, on stage 3, he crashed . Christian sustained a total of six fractures, including three vertebrae fractures (spinous processes), a pelvic fracture and two rib fractures.

Knowing how severe the injuries were, it didn’t stop him. He was determined to ride this year’s Tour and get back on the bike ASAP. He did just that. His first race was the Tour de Suisse, 6 weeks after his crash. Christian came a respectable 84th and rode well.

Christian Vande Velde during the Tour de Suisse
Photo © 2009 Fotoreporter Sirotti

Unfortunately for Garmin, young gun Dan Martin had to withdraw from the tour with a knee complaint. Dan Martin was here to gain experience for future years and maybe have a crack at the white jersey as well as maybe try for a stage win or two in the mountains.

Garmin still hope for GC contention, possible stage wins and maybe the yellow jersey at some point during the race but don’t expect Vande Velde to repeat his performance last year. However, do not rule him out of taking a stage win. He won stage 4 in Paris Nice from a breakaway and he could do a similar thing here. If he makes top 10, it’s a magnificent achievement for himself and Garmin. Unfortunately I see him struggling to make top 20. BUT, if he has recovered well from his injuries, I’ll be wrong. Regardless, it's a miracle he's here.

Other Chances
Other riders to watch out for: Vladimir Karpets (Katusha), Luis Leon Sanchez & Oscar Pereiro (Caisse d’Epargne), Stijn Devolder (Quick-Step), Frank Schleck (Saxo Bank), Levi Leipheimer & Andreas Kloden (Astana) and Christophe Moreau (Agritubel).

Out of that list, I would say Luis Leon Sanchez will more than likely take a stage win. Moreau will probably try for the mountains jersey. Watch out for young rider Rigoberto Uran from Caisse d’Epargne. This 22 year old has good climbing prowess. It would not surprise me to see him win a stage. Perhaps, maybe he might go for the mountains classification.

First of all, I ask the question.

Can Contador even be beaten?

On face value you would probably say no, but if the riders employ smart tactics, he can be beaten. There are two things that are not on Contador’s side.

Firstly, his team! Yes, he does boast a team featuring Armstrong, Leipheimer, Popovych and Kloden but are they going to work for him? There is a possibility that there could be an in-house rivalry. In 2005, we saw it with Jan Ullrich and Alexendre Vinokourov from the then T-Mobile team. They had leadership issues. With all respect to Vinokourov, he couldn’t handle the fact that Ullrich was leader and so he decided to attack rather than to help Ullrich. Naturally, Ullrich and Kloden chased him down and drew Armstrong to him where Armstrong powered away from both of them. A similar thing could happen here. Johan Bruyneel has said that Contador is the strongest rider and will lead. But, the question has to be asked. will Armstrong work with Contador? This could be an interesting situation for Contador. If this does happen, then someone like Roman Kreuziger, Carlos Sastre, Denis Menchov and Kim Kirchen could take advantage of this and use their skills to power up a climb. However, there can be a way Contador can counteract it if it does happen.

If you look back at the Dauphine, Valverde wanted to win. Contador helped him win. Alejandro Valverde is not riding the Tour this year due to his Italian ban for doping. The tour this year does pass through Italy. That leaves Caisse d’Epargne without a leader. If Contador didn’t have any help from his team, I’m pretty sure Caisse d’Epargne will come to his rescue and repay Contador for helping them in the Dauphine. It’s a distinct possibility. Contador could be getting led up the climbs by Luis Leon Sanchez and Oscar Periero, rather than Kloden, Leipheimer and Armstrong. This would be interesting to see. If Contador does have Astana’s help and Caisse do ride with him, then it will be very hard for Contador to lose.

Secondly, he has to worry about the amount of time trialing and lack of mountain top finishes. Cadel Evans can time trial better than Contador. With only 3 summit finishes in this year’s tour, Contador’s flair in the mountains is suddenly taken away.

There is only one real way you can beat Contador. The other riders could team up against Contador and bully him and drop him. Work together to drop him! It’s plausible and highly unlikely. You won’t be able to out-sprint Contador on a mountaintop finish and it will be very hard to drop him on any mountain, although he’s shown in the past that you can. You have to isolate him from his team and then drop him. The only way to do that is to work together. If that move is successful, then you battle it out amongst yourselves for the win.

So, I must reiterate the question and answer again.

Can Contador be beaten? Yes

Will Contador be beaten? No

I also think Evans will be a bridesmaid yet again. Who fills out the podium spot? Denis Menchov. I think Kim Kirchen and Andy Schleck will fight out the top 5 with Kreuziger not far behind.

My picks for the Top 20 for the 96th Tour de France
1. Alberto Contador
2. Cadel Evans
3. Denis Menchov
4. Kim Kirchen
5. Andy Schleck
6. Carlos Sastre
7. Roman Kreuziger
8. Michael Rogers
9. Luis Leon Sanchez
10. Andreas Kloden
11. Lance Armstrong
12. Levi Leipheimer
13. Tony Martin
14. Frank Schleck
15. Robert Gesink
16. Vladimir Karpets
17. Stijn Devolder
18. Christian Vande Velde
19. Linus Gerdemann
20. Franco Pellizotti

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